Why 2010 will be the year of the travel deal

I'm fully aware that this prediction flies in the face of conventional wisdom. I mean, how many travel experts have you seen on TV lately, warning that the deals are going, going, gone?

They're everywhere. But they're probably wrong.

Consider:

A recent forecast by Mintel, an international market and consumer research firm, predicts travel sales will basically remain flat in 2010 (they fell a projected 2.2 percent, to $123 billion, this year). However, air travel and hotel sales will drop by roughly 2 percent each, it says.

Research by Deloitte & Touche paints an equally bright outlook for bargain-hunters. 'Leisure travelers will continue to seek out specials in 2010,' says analyst Adam Weissenberg. 'With hotels fighting to hold their rates as much as possible, they may offer an additional free night, complimentary spa treatment or discounted meals. For its part, the airline industry is also boosting incentives for leisure travelers by offering such things as a monthly pass.'

In case you're wondering why the deals will probably continue through next year, industry guru Peter Yesawich of Y Partnership has an answer: According to his research, just over half of all active travelers say they plan to 'stay fewer nights' on an upcoming vacation than they did this year. The implications are of 'considerable concern' to the travel industry, he says, because they could push prices lower.

I realize nobody knows the future, and predicting travel prices is a fool's game. Still, it seems to me the real question isn't whether there will be more deals, but where they'll be.

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